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September 2006

Default Estimation for Low-Default Portfolios (WP 2006-2)

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Collection: Economics Working Papers Archive


A dramatic rise in subprime foreclosures over the past several years has led to calls for restrictions of, or prohibitions against, a range of lending practices loosely termed "predatory." Several cities and states have enacted legislation or regulations aimed at eliminating The problem in default probability estimation for low-default portfolios is that there is little relevant historical data information. No amount of data processing can fix this problem. More information is required. Incorporating expert opinion formally is an attractive option.


Nicholas M. Kiefer